Public Health Data: Coronavirus Cases To Peak In Mid-May At The Earliest

Shasta County Public Health has been working with some rough statistical models as they try to predict when the curve will peak for Coronavirus cases. With the only tests so far being limited to those with acute symptoms and those known to have been exposed to the virus, the available data on the general population is mostly guesswork. However, one thing all the experts seem to agree on is that an exponential growth in the number of cases will get beyond the capacity of local hospitals if the public does not continue to obey the stay at home orders. On Wednesday a Shasta County epidemiologist showed some charts depicting different scenarios based on varying levels of social distancing, and the contrasting graphic predictions are stark. None of the scenarios show a peak anytime before mid-May. A complete lifting of restrictions shows over 1600 hospitalizations by mid-May with an eventual 2,000 deaths. 3 months of lax stay at home orders would peak at over 600 at the start of July. Strict stay at home orders would peak at a mere 16 hospitalizations at the beginning of June. The basic takeaway message that public health was presenting is that it’s up to the people to survive separately… or perish together. The data can be seen at


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